How does climate change affect agriculture in Brazil?

More than 40,000 extreme weather events have affected Brazil’s agriculture and livestock sector over the past decade, causing losses exceeding US$75 billion (about R$390 billion). With 95% of crops dependent on rainfall, the sector is among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

To help the country address this situation, researchers at Coppe/UFRJ are developing a groundbreaking tool that will allow the government to simulate the impacts of climate change across all regions of Brazil and assess which adaptation measures are most effective in protecting agricultural production, food security, and the economy.

Led by Cenergia, a laboratory affiliated with the Energy Planning Program, the project compiles climate, agricultural, and economic data to create a parametric tool capable of estimating impacts on agricultural GDP, identifying the most vulnerable areas, and testing different adaptation technologies and practices. The tool is expected to be delivered to the government by the end of the year and will support the formulation of public policies to strengthen the resilience of agribusiness and family farming.

The study, detailed in the article “How climate change is impacting the Brazilian agricultural sector: evidence from a systematic literature review,” began in response to a public call for proposals issued by CNPq focused on research into the impacts of and adaptation to climate change.

The study identified critical points at which rising temperatures begin to rapidly reduce the productivity of crops such as soybeans. Significant impacts were also observed in livestock farming, where heat stress compromises the animals’ physiology and reduces the production of milk, meat, and eggs.

Another concerning finding is the lack of information on adaptation strategies for family farming, especially for crops essential to food security, such as cassava, beans, and milk. The survey also shows that strategic regions, such as the Midwest—which accounts for 51% of the country’s soybean production and 33% of its beef production—and the Amazon have yet to be adequately studied in the scientific literature on the impacts of climate change.

“We collaborate with other research groups, especially the INPE, and receive data on meteorological variables—such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, sunshine, and wind—analyzing historical trends and developing different future climate scenarios. Then, based on these results, we cross-reference them with data on production and agricultural productivity—in the case of the food security sector—for different crop types,” explains Professor Fábio Teixeira of the Energy Planning Program.

“Next, we use machine learning models to estimate how past weather conditions explain variations in the productivity of that particular crop. And from there, we’re able to establish these relationships among the different crops,” says Fábio.

According to researcher Gerd Angelkorte of Cenergia, some regions may no longer be suitable for certain agricultural and livestock activities. “With higher temperatures and less rainfall, areas in the Midwest may face difficulties in maintaining soybean production, while cattle ranching may increasingly rely on feedlot systems to mitigate the effects of the heat.”

Fábio Teixeira emphasizes that the impacts extend beyond the farm. “When agricultural productivity declines, it becomes necessary to expand the area under cultivation to maintain production. This increases pressure on ecosystems and intensifies conflicts over land use, including with renewable energy projects. Our proposal is to understand these relationships in an integrated way to support more sustainable decisions.”