Study highlights vulnerabilities and opportunities in Brazil’s energy sector under climate change

Brazil’s energy system, internationally recognised for its high share of renewable sources, is becoming increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. This is the central conclusion of a study by Coppe/UFRJ that constitutes the most comprehensive review to date of climate-related effects on Brazil’s energy sector. The article was published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources, one of the world’s most prestigious scientific journals.

Conducted by Cenergia, from Coppe’s Energy Planning Programme (PPE), the research shows that climate change already has the potential to cause negative, deep and long-lasting impacts across several pillars of Brazil’s energy mix—risks that are expected to intensify over the coming decades. Among the most critical issues identified are:

• the country’s heavy reliance on hydropower, which is increasingly sensitive to prolonged droughts;
• the rapid growth in electricity demand for cooling, driven by rising temperatures and the greater frequency of extreme events such as heatwaves;
• the vulnerability of biofuel production in regions prone to water scarcity.

The study also points to opportunities, such as a potential increase in wind energy capacity in parts of the country. However, the authors caution that isolated gains do not offset the systemic risks facing the power sector. “Brazil has an electricity matrix that is largely renewable, and this is undoubtedly a major strength. But precisely because it depends on climate conditions, it is also more sensitive to the impacts of global warming,” explains researcher Talita Cruz, who led the study.

To deepen the analysis, the research team produced three original maps of climate trends relevant to energy security in Brazil:

• hydropower potential across 12 river basins;
• solar and wind potential by macro-region;
• energy demand for space cooling by state.

The results reveal an uneven and concerning picture: worsening drought conditions and declining hydropower potential in the North; some positive trends for river basins in the South; gains for wind energy in the South and Northeast; and persistent scientific uncertainty regarding the impacts on solar power generation.

The study also identifies a significant knowledge gap: there are very few studies assessing climate impacts on biomass and bioenergy production—strategic energy sources for Brazil. “Without clarity about where the risks and opportunities lie, meaningful planning is impossible. Mapping this gap in knowledge is therefore crucial: it allows us to identify trends in energy and environmental planning and to make evidence-based decisions. Only then can we assess whether we are truly strengthening energy security and resilience—or merely reacting, in an improvised manner, to climate emergencies,” says Cruz.

Among its key recommendations, the study highlights:

• the need for adaptive energy planning that takes future climate scenarios into account;
• greater integration among complementary energy sources, such as solar, wind and bioenergy;
• increased investment in high-resolution climate modelling to inform decisions in the electricity sector;
• public policies aligned with projections of global warming and extreme climate events.

The work is based on a systematic review of 65 scientific articles and the collaboration of 19 researchers from Cenergia, a leading laboratory in energy transition, decarbonisation and sustainability.

The authors’ central message is clear: Brazil may see its energy security erode in the coming years—or it may position itself as a global leader in the energy transition through planning, science and innovation. The outcome will depend on the choices made now.